League · England

Championship 2025-26 statistics

2025-26 season

Matches played: 552
Goals per match: 2.61
Home win: 42%
Draw: 26%
Away win: 32%
3+ goals: 51%
Both teams scored: 57%

Table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Coventry	46	28	11	7	97	45	+52	95
2	Ipswich	46	23	15	8	80	47	+33	84
3	Millwall	46	24	11	11	64	49	+15	83
4	Southampton	46	22	14	10	82	56	+26	80
5	Middlesbrough	46	22	14	10	72	47	+25	80
6	Hull City	46	21	10	15	70	66	+4	73
7	Wrexham	46	19	14	13	69	65	+4	71
8	Derby	46	20	9	17	67	59	+8	69
9	Norwich	46	19	8	19	63	56	+7	65
10	Birmingham	46	17	13	16	57	56	+1	64
11	Swansea	46	18	10	18	57	59	-2	64
12	Bristol City	46	17	11	18	59	59	0	62
13	Sheffield Utd	46	18	6	22	66	66	0	60
14	Preston	46	15	15	16	55	62	-7	60
15	QPR	46	16	10	20	61	73	-12	58
16	Watford	46	14	15	17	53	65	-12	57
17	Stoke City	46	15	10	21	51	56	-5	55
18	Portsmouth	46	14	13	19	49	64	-15	55
19	West Brom	46	13	14	19	48	58	-10	53
20	Charlton	46	13	14	19	44	58	-14	53
21	Leicester	46	12	16	18	58	68	-10	52
22	Blackburn	46	13	13	20	42	56	-14	52
23	Oxford United	46	11	14	21	45	59	-14	47
24	Sheffield Wednesday	46	2	12	32	29	89	-60	18

The table is computed from match results; matches decided by forfeit count with the score declared by the federation. Points deducted or awarded separately are not reflected. Only regular-season matches count — play-offs and relegation matches are excluded.

Teams in this league

Every team in this season's fixture list. Unlike the standings table, teams that have not played yet also appear here.

Season simulation

The remaining fixtures were played out 10,000 times using the model's current probabilities. Percentages below are how often each team finished in that position.

Team	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3	Pts (avg)
Burnley	69.3%	97.7%	0.0%	91.5
Southampton	12.4%	74.2%	0.0%	80.2
Millwall	11.8%	74.8%	0.0%	80.1
Middlesbrough	3.5%	45.2%	0.2%	73.8
Wolves	1.0%	22.6%	0.8%	68.8
Sheffield Utd	0.5%	14.1%	1.8%	66.0
Bolton	0.4%	12.3%	2.1%	65.4
Swansea	0.2%	9.0%	3.4%	63.7
West Brom	0.1%	7.2%	4.5%	62.8
Derby	0.2%	7.0%	4.8%	62.2
Wrexham	0.1%	6.6%	4.9%	62.1
Norwich	0.1%	6.3%	5.6%	62.1
Birmingham	0.1%	4.8%	6.2%	61.2
West Ham	0.1%	5.3%	6.5%	61.1
Charlton	0.0%	2.5%	9.6%	58.9
Blackburn	0.1%	2.8%	9.9%	58.8
Bristol City	0.0%	2.4%	11.3%	58.3
QPR	0.0%	2.5%	11.2%	58.2
Portsmouth	0.0%	1.1%	20.5%	55.1
Watford	0.0%	1.1%	20.5%	54.9
Cardiff	0.0%	0.2%	40.0%	50.5
Preston	0.0%	0.2%	43.9%	49.8
Lincoln	0.0%	0.1%	44.6%	49.5
Stoke City	0.0%	0.1%	47.7%	48.9

Method: ratings are frozen as of the run date; ties break by points-GD-goals, country-specific rules not applied. Pairings below the publishing threshold use the model's prior rating. The table refreshes whenever the script is re-run.

Generated: 2026-08-23 · 3 · 10,000

The model's record in this league

The model's claim is not “I know every match” — it is “I know where I'm confident”. Measured in this league:

Match result
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	771	58%
≥ 60%	286	66%
≥ 70%	84	80%

Double chance
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 75%	1432	80%
≥ 80%	641	85%
≥ 85%	233	90%

Goals markets
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	2527	55%
≥ 55%	1151	60%
≥ 60%	319	63%

And if it had to answer every match?

Model: 48%
Always pick home: 43%
Picking at random: 33%
Reachable ceiling: 74%

Why that ceiling is not 100%: 26% of matches in this league end in a draw, and a draw is almost never the single most likely outcome on its own. So one “accuracy” figure cannot be read on its own — it is read next to these anchors.

Matches measured: 2171. The thresholds were not cherry-picked — all of them are shown. Incorrect predictions are included and none are hidden.

Full track record →