League · England

Championship 2023-24 statistics

2023-24 season

Matches played: 552
Goals per match: 2.68
Home win: 45%
Draw: 23%
Away win: 32%
3+ goals: 52%
Both teams scored: 52%

Table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Leicester	46	31	4	11	89	41	+48	97
2	Ipswich	46	28	12	6	92	57	+35	96
3	Leeds	46	27	9	10	81	43	+38	90
4	Southampton	46	26	9	11	87	63	+24	87
5	West Brom	46	21	12	13	70	47	+23	75
6	Norwich	46	21	10	15	79	64	+15	73
7	Hull City	46	19	13	14	68	60	+8	70
8	Middlesbrough	46	20	9	17	71	62	+9	69
9	Coventry	46	17	13	16	70	59	+11	64
10	Preston	46	18	9	19	56	67	-11	63
11	Bristol City	46	17	11	18	53	51	+2	62
12	Cardiff	46	19	5	22	53	70	-17	62
13	Millwall	46	16	11	19	45	55	-10	59
14	Swansea	46	15	12	19	59	65	-6	57
15	Watford	46	13	17	16	61	61	0	56
16	Sunderland	46	16	8	22	52	54	-2	56
17	Stoke City	46	15	11	20	49	60	-11	56
18	QPR	46	15	11	20	47	58	-11	56
19	Blackburn	46	14	11	21	60	74	-14	53
20	Sheffield Wednesday	46	15	8	23	44	68	-24	53
21	Plymouth	46	13	12	21	59	70	-11	51
22	Birmingham	46	13	11	22	50	65	-15	50
23	Huddersfield	46	9	18	19	48	77	-29	45
24	Rotherham	46	5	12	29	37	89	-52	27

The table is computed from match results; matches decided by forfeit count with the score declared by the federation. Points deducted or awarded separately are not reflected. Only regular-season matches count — play-offs and relegation matches are excluded.

Teams in this league

Every team in this season's fixture list. Unlike the standings table, teams that have not played yet also appear here.

Season simulation

The remaining fixtures were played out 10,000 times using the model's current probabilities. Percentages below are how often each team finished in that position.

Team	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3	Pts (avg)
Burnley	69.3%	97.7%	0.0%	91.5
Southampton	12.4%	74.2%	0.0%	80.2
Millwall	11.8%	74.8%	0.0%	80.1
Middlesbrough	3.5%	45.2%	0.2%	73.8
Wolves	1.0%	22.6%	0.8%	68.8
Sheffield Utd	0.5%	14.1%	1.8%	66.0
Bolton	0.4%	12.3%	2.1%	65.4
Swansea	0.2%	9.0%	3.4%	63.7
West Brom	0.1%	7.2%	4.5%	62.8
Derby	0.2%	7.0%	4.8%	62.2
Wrexham	0.1%	6.6%	4.9%	62.1
Norwich	0.1%	6.3%	5.6%	62.1
Birmingham	0.1%	4.8%	6.2%	61.2
West Ham	0.1%	5.3%	6.5%	61.1
Charlton	0.0%	2.5%	9.6%	58.9
Blackburn	0.1%	2.8%	9.9%	58.8
Bristol City	0.0%	2.4%	11.3%	58.3
QPR	0.0%	2.5%	11.2%	58.2
Portsmouth	0.0%	1.1%	20.5%	55.1
Watford	0.0%	1.1%	20.5%	54.9
Cardiff	0.0%	0.2%	40.0%	50.5
Preston	0.0%	0.2%	43.9%	49.8
Lincoln	0.0%	0.1%	44.6%	49.5
Stoke City	0.0%	0.1%	47.7%	48.9

Method: ratings are frozen as of the run date; ties break by points-GD-goals, country-specific rules not applied. Pairings below the publishing threshold use the model's prior rating. The table refreshes whenever the script is re-run.

Generated: 2026-08-23 · 3 · 10,000

The model's record in this league

The model's claim is not “I know every match” — it is “I know where I'm confident”. Measured in this league:

Match result
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	771	58%
≥ 60%	286	66%
≥ 70%	84	80%

Double chance
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 75%	1432	80%
≥ 80%	641	85%
≥ 85%	233	90%

Goals markets
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	2527	55%
≥ 55%	1151	60%
≥ 60%	319	63%

And if it had to answer every match?

Model: 48%
Always pick home: 43%
Picking at random: 33%
Reachable ceiling: 74%

Why that ceiling is not 100%: 26% of matches in this league end in a draw, and a draw is almost never the single most likely outcome on its own. So one “accuracy” figure cannot be read on its own — it is read next to these anchors.

Matches measured: 2171. The thresholds were not cherry-picked — all of them are shown. Incorrect predictions are included and none are hidden.

Full track record →