League · England

Championship 2022-23 statistics

2022-23 season

Matches played: 552
Goals per match: 2.43
Home win: 41%
Draw: 27%
Away win: 32%
3+ goals: 44%
Both teams scored: 48%

Table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Burnley	46	29	14	3	87	35	+52	101
2	Sheffield Utd	46	28	7	11	73	39	+34	91
3	Luton	46	21	17	8	57	39	+18	80
4	Middlesbrough	46	22	9	15	84	56	+28	75
5	Coventry	46	18	16	12	58	46	+12	70
6	Sunderland	46	18	15	13	68	55	+13	69
7	Blackburn	46	20	9	17	52	54	-2	69
8	Millwall	46	19	11	16	57	50	+7	68
9	West Brom	46	18	12	16	59	53	+6	66
10	Swansea	46	18	12	16	68	64	+4	66
11	Watford	46	16	15	15	56	53	+3	63
12	Preston	46	17	12	17	45	59	-14	63
13	Norwich	46	17	11	18	57	54	+3	62
14	Bristol City	46	15	14	17	55	56	-1	59
15	Hull City	46	14	16	16	51	61	-10	58
16	Stoke City	46	14	11	21	55	54	+1	53
17	Birmingham	46	14	11	21	47	58	-11	53
18	Huddersfield	46	14	11	21	47	62	-15	53
19	Rotherham	46	11	17	18	49	60	-11	50
20	Reading	46	13	11	22	46	68	-22	50
21	QPR	46	13	11	22	44	71	-27	50
22	Cardiff	46	13	10	23	41	58	-17	49
23	Wigan	46	10	15	21	38	65	-27	45
24	Blackpool	46	11	11	24	48	72	-24	44

The table is computed from match results; matches decided by forfeit count with the score declared by the federation. Points deducted or awarded separately are not reflected. Only regular-season matches count — play-offs and relegation matches are excluded.

Teams in this league

Every team in this season's fixture list. Unlike the standings table, teams that have not played yet also appear here.

Season simulation

The remaining fixtures were played out 10,000 times using the model's current probabilities. Percentages below are how often each team finished in that position.

Team	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3	Pts (avg)
Burnley	69.3%	97.7%	0.0%	91.5
Southampton	12.4%	74.2%	0.0%	80.2
Millwall	11.8%	74.8%	0.0%	80.1
Middlesbrough	3.5%	45.2%	0.2%	73.8
Wolves	1.0%	22.6%	0.8%	68.8
Sheffield Utd	0.5%	14.1%	1.8%	66.0
Bolton	0.4%	12.3%	2.1%	65.4
Swansea	0.2%	9.0%	3.4%	63.7
West Brom	0.1%	7.2%	4.5%	62.8
Derby	0.2%	7.0%	4.8%	62.2
Wrexham	0.1%	6.6%	4.9%	62.1
Norwich	0.1%	6.3%	5.6%	62.1
Birmingham	0.1%	4.8%	6.2%	61.2
West Ham	0.1%	5.3%	6.5%	61.1
Charlton	0.0%	2.5%	9.6%	58.9
Blackburn	0.1%	2.8%	9.9%	58.8
Bristol City	0.0%	2.4%	11.3%	58.3
QPR	0.0%	2.5%	11.2%	58.2
Portsmouth	0.0%	1.1%	20.5%	55.1
Watford	0.0%	1.1%	20.5%	54.9
Cardiff	0.0%	0.2%	40.0%	50.5
Preston	0.0%	0.2%	43.9%	49.8
Lincoln	0.0%	0.1%	44.6%	49.5
Stoke City	0.0%	0.1%	47.7%	48.9

Method: ratings are frozen as of the run date; ties break by points-GD-goals, country-specific rules not applied. Pairings below the publishing threshold use the model's prior rating. The table refreshes whenever the script is re-run.

Generated: 2026-08-23 · 3 · 10,000

The model's record in this league

The model's claim is not “I know every match” — it is “I know where I'm confident”. Measured in this league:

Match result
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	771	58%
≥ 60%	286	66%
≥ 70%	84	80%

Double chance
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 75%	1432	80%
≥ 80%	641	85%
≥ 85%	233	90%

Goals markets
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	2527	55%
≥ 55%	1151	60%
≥ 60%	319	63%

And if it had to answer every match?

Model: 48%
Always pick home: 43%
Picking at random: 33%
Reachable ceiling: 74%

Why that ceiling is not 100%: 26% of matches in this league end in a draw, and a draw is almost never the single most likely outcome on its own. So one “accuracy” figure cannot be read on its own — it is read next to these anchors.

Matches measured: 2171. The thresholds were not cherry-picked — all of them are shown. Incorrect predictions are included and none are hidden.

Full track record →