League · England

Championship 2024-25 statistics

2024-25 season

Matches played: 552
Goals per match: 2.45
Home win: 46%
Draw: 28%
Away win: 26%
3+ goals: 44%
Both teams scored: 50%

Table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Leeds	46	29	13	4	95	30	+65	100
2	Burnley	46	28	16	2	69	16	+53	100
3	Sheffield Utd	46	28	8	10	63	36	+27	92
4	Sunderland	46	21	13	12	58	44	+14	76
5	Coventry	46	20	9	17	64	58	+6	69
6	Bristol City	46	17	17	12	59	55	+4	68
7	Blackburn	46	19	9	18	53	48	+5	66
8	Millwall	46	18	12	16	47	49	-2	66
9	West Brom	46	15	19	12	57	47	+10	64
10	Middlesbrough	46	18	10	18	64	56	+8	64
11	Swansea	46	17	10	19	51	56	-5	61
12	Sheffield Wednesday	46	15	13	18	60	69	-9	58
13	Norwich	46	14	15	17	71	68	+3	57
14	Watford	46	16	9	21	53	61	-8	57
15	QPR	46	14	14	18	53	63	-10	56
16	Portsmouth	46	14	12	20	58	71	-13	54
17	Oxford United	46	13	14	19	49	65	-16	53
18	Stoke City	46	12	15	19	45	62	-17	51
19	Derby	46	13	11	22	48	56	-8	50
20	Preston	46	10	20	16	48	59	-11	50
21	Hull City	46	12	13	21	44	54	-10	49
22	Luton	46	13	10	23	45	69	-24	49
23	Plymouth	46	11	13	22	51	88	-37	46
24	Cardiff	46	9	17	20	48	73	-25	44

The table is computed from match results; matches decided by forfeit count with the score declared by the federation. Points deducted or awarded separately are not reflected. Only regular-season matches count — play-offs and relegation matches are excluded.

Teams in this league

Every team in this season's fixture list. Unlike the standings table, teams that have not played yet also appear here.

Season simulation

The remaining fixtures were played out 10,000 times using the model's current probabilities. Percentages below are how often each team finished in that position.

Team	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3	Pts (avg)
Burnley	69.3%	97.7%	0.0%	91.5
Southampton	12.4%	74.2%	0.0%	80.2
Millwall	11.8%	74.8%	0.0%	80.1
Middlesbrough	3.5%	45.2%	0.2%	73.8
Wolves	1.0%	22.6%	0.8%	68.8
Sheffield Utd	0.5%	14.1%	1.8%	66.0
Bolton	0.4%	12.3%	2.1%	65.4
Swansea	0.2%	9.0%	3.4%	63.7
West Brom	0.1%	7.2%	4.5%	62.8
Derby	0.2%	7.0%	4.8%	62.2
Wrexham	0.1%	6.6%	4.9%	62.1
Norwich	0.1%	6.3%	5.6%	62.1
Birmingham	0.1%	4.8%	6.2%	61.2
West Ham	0.1%	5.3%	6.5%	61.1
Charlton	0.0%	2.5%	9.6%	58.9
Blackburn	0.1%	2.8%	9.9%	58.8
Bristol City	0.0%	2.4%	11.3%	58.3
QPR	0.0%	2.5%	11.2%	58.2
Portsmouth	0.0%	1.1%	20.5%	55.1
Watford	0.0%	1.1%	20.5%	54.9
Cardiff	0.0%	0.2%	40.0%	50.5
Preston	0.0%	0.2%	43.9%	49.8
Lincoln	0.0%	0.1%	44.6%	49.5
Stoke City	0.0%	0.1%	47.7%	48.9

Method: ratings are frozen as of the run date; ties break by points-GD-goals, country-specific rules not applied. Pairings below the publishing threshold use the model's prior rating. The table refreshes whenever the script is re-run.

Generated: 2026-08-23 · 3 · 10,000

The model's record in this league

The model's claim is not “I know every match” — it is “I know where I'm confident”. Measured in this league:

Match result
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	771	58%
≥ 60%	286	66%
≥ 70%	84	80%

Double chance
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 75%	1432	80%
≥ 80%	641	85%
≥ 85%	233	90%

Goals markets
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	2527	55%
≥ 55%	1151	60%
≥ 60%	319	63%

And if it had to answer every match?

Model: 48%
Always pick home: 43%
Picking at random: 33%
Reachable ceiling: 74%

Why that ceiling is not 100%: 26% of matches in this league end in a draw, and a draw is almost never the single most likely outcome on its own. So one “accuracy” figure cannot be read on its own — it is read next to these anchors.

Matches measured: 2171. The thresholds were not cherry-picked — all of them are shown. Incorrect predictions are included and none are hidden.

Full track record →