Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 32

FC Augsburg–Holstein Kiel

1–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 4 May 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: WWK Arena, Augsburg

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 22%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'Holstein KielS. Machino (penalty)
40'Holstein KielA. Bernhardsson
51'Holstein KielA. Bernhardsson (assist: S. Skrzybski)
90'FC AugsburgS. Mounie

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Augsburg		Holstein Kiel
27	Shots	7
10	Shots on target	5
16	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	9
12	Corners	0
2	Offsides	0
72%	Possession	28%
592	Passes	238
517	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Augsburg 1.56 · Holstein Kiel 1.26. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots FC Augsburg 27 · Holstein Kiel 7; on target 10 and 5.
FC Augsburg kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

H. Osmers→

4.35

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.0%: “FC Augsburg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.87 for FC Augsburg, 1.15 for Holstein Kiel.
The highest double chance value is 78.3% (1X — FC Augsburg win or draw).
These values were computed from 897 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Augsburg to win54.0%

Draw24.2%

Holstein Kiel to win21.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

4	Fouls	20

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

FC Augsburg lead at half-time38.1%

Level at half-time37.8%

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time24.0%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Augsburg ahead or level76.0%

12 — not level at half-time62.2%

X2 — level or Holstein Kiel ahead61.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 897 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Augsburg: at least 10Actual: 4
Holstein Kiel: at least 10Actual: 20

Corners

FC Augsburg: at least 5
Holstein Kiel: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Augsburg score1.56

Attack: FC Augsburg score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Holstein Kiel score1.26

Attack: Holstein Kiel score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Augsburg's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%2–110.8%2–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.