1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 24

Bravo–Celje

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Športni Park Šiška, Ljubljana

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 21%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'BravoFallou Faye (assist: S. Nuhanovic)
50'CeljeJuanjo Nieto · red card

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bravo 1.29 · Celje 2.14. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

D. Novarlic→

4.17

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.9%: “Celje to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for Bravo, 2.14 for Celje.
The highest double chance value is 79.0% (X2 — draw or Celje win).
These values were computed from 651 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bravo to win21.0%

Draw22.1%

Celje to win56.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 1–0

Bravo lead at half-time23.5%

Level at half-time37.4%

Celje lead at half-time39.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Bravo ahead or level60.9%

12 — not level at half-time62.6%

X2 — level or Celje ahead76.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 650 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bravo: at least 10
Celje: at least 10

Corners

Bravo: at least 4
Celje: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bravo score1.29

Attack: Bravo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Celje concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Celje score2.14

Attack: Celje score 57% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Bravo's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.6%1–110.0%1–37.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.