Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 29

Slavia Praha–Plzen

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 April 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Andrův stadion, Olomouc

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 22%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

89'Slavia PrahaT. Chorý · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Slavia Praha		Plzen
20	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	5
15	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	6
4	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
388	Passes	321
281	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Slavia Praha 2.04 · Plzen 0.87. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Slavia Praha 20 · Plzen 11; on target 6 and 5.
Slavia Praha kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

M. Radina→

4.37

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.9%: “Slavia Praha to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.04 for Slavia Praha, 0.87 for Plzen.
The highest double chance value is 86.4% (1X — Slavia Praha win or draw).
These values were computed from 988 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slavia Praha to win64.9%

Draw21.5%

Plzen to win13.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,247 of 1,995 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

18	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Slavia Praha lead at half-time43.2%

Level at half-time39.8%

Plzen lead at half-time17.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Slavia Praha ahead or level83.0%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or Plzen ahead56.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 988 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Slavia Praha: at least 11Actual: 18
Plzen: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Slavia Praha: at least 5Actual: 4
Plzen: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Slavia Praha score2.04

Attack: Slavia Praha score 64% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Plzen's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.04 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Plzen score0.87

Attack: Plzen score above the league average (39% more).

Opponent's defence: Slavia Praha concede 43% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.87 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

2–011.7%2–110.9%1–110.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.