Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 34

PSV Eindhoven–Twente

5–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Philips Stadion, Eindhoven

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'PSV EindhovenR. Flamingo (assist: I. Perišić)
16'TwenteS. Ørjasæter (assist: D. Weidmann)
44'PSV EindhovenN. Fernandez (assist: K. Sildillia)
53'PSV EindhovenD. Man (assist: I. Perišić)
56'PSV EindhovenG. Til (assist: D. Man)
84'PSV EindhovenR. Pepi

Match statistics

Match statistics
PSV Eindhoven		Twente
13	Shots	18
7	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	13
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
11	Corners	9
2	Offsides	0
52%	Possession	48%
385	Passes	355
311	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PSV Eindhoven 2.18 · Twente 1.16. On the pitch: 5-1.
Shots PSV Eindhoven 13 · Twente 18; on target 7 and 6.

Referee

J. Manschot→

3.35

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.8%: “PSV Eindhoven to win”. Second comes “Twente to win” at 33.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.09 for PSV Eindhoven, 1.84 for Twente.
The highest double chance value is 77.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,215 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PSV Eindhoven to win43.8%

Draw22.4%

Twente to win33.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	5

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

PSV Eindhoven lead at half-time48.8%

Level at half-time35.2%

Twente lead at half-time16.1%

First-half double chance

1X — PSV Eindhoven ahead or level83.9%

12 — not level at half-time64.8%

X2 — level or Twente ahead51.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1215 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

PSV Eindhoven: at least 8Actual: 7
Twente: at least 8Actual: 5

Corners

PSV Eindhoven: at least 5Actual: 11
Twente: at least 3Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PSV Eindhoven score2.18

Attack: PSV Eindhoven score 63% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Twente concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 2.18 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Twente score1.16

Attack: Twente score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: PSV Eindhoven concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–18.5%1–18.3%2–28.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.