Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 33

GO Ahead Eagles–PSV Eindhoven

1–4

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 14:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: De Adelaarshorst, Deventer

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'PSV EindhovenI. Perišić (assist: K. Sildillia)
26'GO Ahead EaglesM. Suray (penalty)
45'PSV EindhovenR. Pepi (assist: S. Dest)
70'PSV EindhovenI. Perišić (assist: P. Wanner)
82'PSV EindhovenP. Wanner (assist: Couhaib Driouech)

Match statistics

Match statistics
GO Ahead Eagles		PSV Eindhoven
11	Shots	24
4	Shots on target	10
7	Shots inside the box	19
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	4
2	Offsides	1
41%	Possession	59%
307	Passes	463
243	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GO Ahead Eagles 1.27 · PSV Eindhoven 2.15. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots GO Ahead Eagles 11 · PSV Eindhoven 24; on target 4 and 10.
PSV Eindhoven kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

M. van den Kerkhof→

2.55

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.0%: “PSV Eindhoven to win”. Second comes “GO Ahead Eagles to win” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for GO Ahead Eagles, 2.19 for PSV Eindhoven.
The highest double chance value is 77.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,206 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GO Ahead Eagles to win28.9%

Draw22.1%

PSV Eindhoven to win49.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

GO Ahead Eagles lead at half-time22.9%

Level at half-time36.5%

PSV Eindhoven lead at half-time40.6%

First-half double chance

1X — GO Ahead Eagles ahead or level59.4%

12 — not level at half-time63.5%

X2 — level or PSV Eindhoven ahead77.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1206 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GO Ahead Eagles: at least 7Actual: 9
PSV Eindhoven: at least 9Actual: 7

Corners

GO Ahead Eagles: at least 4Actual: 8
PSV Eindhoven: at least 6Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GO Ahead Eagles score1.27

Attack: GO Ahead Eagles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: PSV Eindhoven concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals PSV Eindhoven score2.15

Attack: PSV Eindhoven score 58% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: GO Ahead Eagles's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–29.1%1–18.4%2–27.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.