Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 26

Volos NFC–PAOK

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 March 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio, Volos

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 8%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'PAOKA. Jeremejeff (assist: Taison)
64'Volos NFCD. Martinez (assist: L. Abanda)
90'Volos NFCJan Hurtado

Match statistics

Match statistics
Volos NFC		PAOK
9	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	6
2	Offsides	4
26%	Possession	74%
194	Passes	559
125	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Volos NFC 0.58 · PAOK 2.01. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Volos NFC 9 · PAOK 9; on target 3 and 4.
PAOK kept the ball more (74%).

Referee

F. Polychronis→

5.03

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.9%: “PAOK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.58 for Volos NFC, 2.01 for PAOK.
The highest double chance value is 91.6% (X2 — draw or PAOK win).
These values were computed from 793 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Volos NFC to win8.4%

Draw19.7%

PAOK to win71.9%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,222 predictions were correct (74.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	9

4	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Volos NFC lead at half-time8.6%

Level at half-time36.8%

PAOK lead at half-time54.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Volos NFC ahead or level45.4%

12 — not level at half-time63.2%

X2 — level or PAOK ahead91.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 792 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Volos NFC: at least 13Actual: 11
PAOK: at least 13Actual: 9

Corners

Volos NFC: at least 3Actual: 3
PAOK: at least 5Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Volos NFC score0.58

Attack: Volos NFC score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: PAOK concede 46% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals PAOK score2.01

Attack: PAOK score 55% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Volos NFC's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–215.9%0–114.6%0–310.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.