Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 27

AZ Alkmaar–Vitesse

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 30 March 2024 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

53'AZ AlkmaarD. de Wit (assist: Y. Sugawara)
64'AZ AlkmaarVangelis Pavlidis (assist: Myron Van Brederode)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AZ Alkmaar		Vitesse
17	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	2
17	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	6
2	Offsides	0
61%	Possession	39%
584	Passes	372
511	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AZ Alkmaar 2.20 · Vitesse 0.74. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots AZ Alkmaar 17 · Vitesse 8; on target 5 and 2.
AZ Alkmaar kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

J. van der Laan→

2.72

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 80.5%: “AZ Alkmaar to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.67 for AZ Alkmaar, 0.68 for Vitesse.
The highest double chance value is 94.1% (1X — AZ Alkmaar win or draw).
These values were computed from 544 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AZ Alkmaar to win80.5%

Draw13.6%

Vitesse to win5.9%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	5

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — AZ Alkmaar win or draw94.1%

12 — any result other than a draw86.4%

X2 — draw or Vitesse win19.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (13.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

AZ Alkmaar lead at half-time64.9%

Level at half-time30.5%

Vitesse lead at half-time4.6%

First-half double chance

1X — AZ Alkmaar ahead or level95.4%

12 — not level at half-time69.5%

X2 — level or Vitesse ahead35.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 544 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AZ Alkmaar: at least 9Actual: 11
Vitesse: at least 10Actual: 5

Corners

AZ Alkmaar: at least 5Actual: 9
Vitesse: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals66.3%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AZ Alkmaar score2.20

Attack: AZ Alkmaar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vitesse's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vitesse score0.74

Attack: Vitesse score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AZ Alkmaar concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.9%3–011.6%2–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 544 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 60 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.