Superliga · Denmark · Relegation Round - 4

Odense–Lyngby

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 24 April 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Odense Stadium, Odense

Goals and red cards

36'LyngbyP. Knudsen (assist: B. Hämäläinen)
47'LyngbyK. Finnsson (assist: S. Magnusson)
53'OdenseY. Minteh (assist: E. Sabbi)
76'OdenseN. Skytta

Match statistics

Match statistics
Odense		Lyngby
15	Shots	16
6	Shots on target	8
8	Shots inside the box	11
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	8
4	Offsides	2
60%	Possession	40%
420	Passes	278
337	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Odense 1.37 · Lyngby 1.41. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Odense 15 · Lyngby 16; on target 6 and 8.
Odense kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Jacob A. Sundberg, Denmark→

4.54

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.4%: “Lyngby to win”. Second comes “Odense to win” at 35.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.37 for Odense, 1.41 for Lyngby.
The highest double chance value is 72.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 144 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Odense to win35.2%

Draw27.5%

Lyngby to win37.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,522 of 6,222 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Odense win or draw62.6%

12 — any result other than a draw72.5%

X2 — draw or Lyngby win64.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Odense lead at half-time40.9%

Level at half-time43.0%

Lyngby lead at half-time16.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Odense ahead or level83.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Lyngby ahead59.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 144 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Odense: at least 9Actual: 11
Lyngby: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Odense: at least 5Actual: 5
Lyngby: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Odense score1.37

Attack: Odense score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lyngby's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lyngby score1.41

Attack: Lyngby score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Odense concede 33% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–29.2%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 144 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 22 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.