Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 27

Genk–Oostende

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 February 2023 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Cegeka Arena, Genk

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'GenkD. Muñoz
40'GenkM. Samatta (assist: M. Tresor Ndayishimiye)
73'GenkJ. Paintsil (assist: M. Tresor Ndayishimiye)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Genk		Oostende
10	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	4
3	Offsides	0
60%	Possession	40%
564	Passes	366
446	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Genk 2.65 · Oostende 0.75. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Genk 10 · Oostende 12; on target 5 and 4.
Genk kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

J. Vergoote→

4.40

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.5%: “Genk to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.33 for Genk, 0.92 for Oostende.
The highest double chance value is 88.2% (1X — Genk win or draw).
These values were computed from 234 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Genk to win69.5%

Draw18.7%

Oostende to win11.8%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,092 of 1,602 predictions were correct (68.2%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,772 of 6,687 predictions were correct (56.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Genk win or draw88.2%

12 — any result other than a draw81.3%

X2 — draw or Oostende win30.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (18.7%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Genk lead at half-time76.3%

Level at half-time22.7%

Oostende lead at half-time1.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Genk ahead or level99.0%

12 — not level at half-time77.3%

X2 — level or Oostende ahead23.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 234 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Genk: at least 11Actual: 13
Oostende: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Genk: at least 5Actual: 4
Oostende: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals64.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,830 of 2,908 predictions were correct (62.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 56.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Genk score2.65

Attack: Genk score above the league average (39% more).

Opponent's defence: Oostende concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.65 goals.

How many goals Oostende score0.75

Attack: Oostende score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Genk concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.75 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.8%2–110.7%1–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 234 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 26 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.