UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Jagiellonia–Silkeborg

2–2

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 14 August 2025 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 22%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'JagielloniaJesús Imaz (assist: Alejandro Pozo)
35'JagielloniaJesús Imaz (assist: D. Drachal)
87'SilkeborgS. Berger
90'SilkeborgJ. Gammelby (assist: A. Poulsen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Jagiellonia		Silkeborg
15	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	1
1	Offsides	0
46%	Possession	54%
500	Passes	600
427	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Jagiellonia 1.84 · Silkeborg 1.37. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Jagiellonia 15 · Silkeborg 11; on target 6 and 4.

Referee

Eric Wattellier, France→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.0%: “Jagiellonia to win”. Second comes “Silkeborg to win” at 29.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for Jagiellonia, 1.37 for Silkeborg.
The highest double chance value is 77.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,460 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Jagiellonia to win49.0%

Draw22.1%

Silkeborg to win29.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Jagiellonia score1.84

Attack: Jagiellonia score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Silkeborg's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Silkeborg score1.37

Attack: Silkeborg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Jagiellonia's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–19.8%2–19.4%1–07.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.