UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 2

Pafos–Bayern München

1–5

HT 1–4

Kick-off: Tuesday, 30 September 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'Bayern MünchenH. Kane (assist: M. Olise)
20'Bayern MünchenR. Guerreiro (assist: N. Jackson)
31'Bayern MünchenN. Jackson (assist: M. Olise)
34'Bayern MünchenH. Kane
45'PafosMislav Oršić
68'Bayern MünchenM. Olise (assist: N. Jackson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Pafos		Bayern München
6	Shots	26
2	Shots on target	15
4	Shots inside the box	21
10	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	6
0	Offsides	0
33%	Possession	67%
352	Passes	720
265	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pafos 0.70 · Bayern München 2.19. On the pitch: 1-5.
Shots Pafos 6 · Bayern München 26; on target 2 and 15.
Bayern München kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

M. Lukjancukas→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.8%: “Bayern München to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.70 for Pafos, 2.19 for Bayern München.
The highest double chance value is 89.2% (X2 — draw or Bayern München win).
These values were computed from 1,633 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pafos to win10.8%

Draw17.5%

Bayern München to win71.8%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pafos score0.70

Attack: Pafos score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: Bayern München concede 41% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.70 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Bayern München score2.19

Attack: Bayern München score 68% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Pafos concede 45% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 2.19 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

0–213.3%0–112.4%0–39.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.