Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 5

Sporting Gijon–Eldense

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 18%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

76'EldenseJavi Martínez (assist: Jorge Rastrojo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting Gijon		Eldense
12	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	4
2	Offsides	2
56%	Possession	44%
475	Passes	383
393	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting Gijon 1.75 · Eldense 0.80. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Sporting Gijon 12 · Eldense 8; on target 3 and 2.
Sporting Gijon kept the ball more (56%).

Announced lineup

Sporting Gijon

Formation: 4-4-2 · Manager: N. Larcamón

Starting XI

Rubén Yáñezgoalkeeper
Andrés Cuencadefender
Pablo Vázquezdefender
Aimar Duñabeitiadefender
Guille Rosasdefender
N. Iosifovmidfielder
Álex Correderamidfielder
Nacho Martínmidfielder
César Gelabertmidfielder
J. Oteroforward
A. Sarcoforward

Substitutes

Antonio Casas
Arana

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.4%: “Sporting Gijon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.67 for Sporting Gijon, 0.86 for Eldense.
The highest double chance value is 82.1% (1X — Sporting Gijon win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,898 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting Gijon to win56.4%

Draw25.8%

Eldense to win17.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Eldense

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Claudio Barragán

Starting XI

Ramón Vilagoalkeeper
D. Ruizdefender
F. Smanddefender
Alex Serradelldefender
A. Ibarrondodefender
Carlos Guiraomidfielder
J. Smithmidfielder
Aingeru Olabarrietamidfielder
Fidelmidfielder
Roberto Lópezmidfielder
Manu Nietoforward

Substitutes

Dinis Rodrigues
Guillermo Macho
Iker Recio
J. Yanda
Javi Martínez
Jorge Rastrojo
Juan Larios
Juanpa
Waldo Rubio

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 12:14.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sporting Gijon win or draw82.1%

12 — any result other than a draw74.2%

X2 — draw or Eldense win43.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sporting Gijon lead at half-time46.6%

Level at half-time42.5%

Eldense lead at half-time10.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting Gijon ahead or level89.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Eldense ahead53.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1898 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting Gijon: at least 11Actual: 9
Eldense: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Sporting Gijon: at least 4Actual: 4
Eldense: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals46.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 42.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting Gijon score1.75

Attack: Sporting Gijon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eldense concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.75 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eldense score0.80

Attack: Eldense score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sporting Gijon's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.80 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%1–012.5%2–011.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1898 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 88 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.