Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 5

Valladolid–Oviedo

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'OviedoCarlos Domínguez
53'OviedoDani Calvo
56'OviedoPablo Sáenz (assist: Enzo Perez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Valladolid		Oviedo
13	Shots	12
1	Shots on target	6
7	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	3
0	Offsides	7
60%	Possession	40%
521	Passes	378
433	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Valladolid 0.95 · Oviedo 1.11. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Valladolid 13 · Oviedo 12; on target 1 and 6.
Valladolid kept the ball more (60%).

Announced lineup

Valladolid

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Fran Escribá

Starting XI

Álvaro Acevesgoalkeeper
Clercdefender
David Torresdefender
Ramón Martínezdefender
Iván Alejodefender
Álex Balboamidfielder
J. Ponceaumidfielder
K. de Rooijmidfielder
Luis Chacónmidfielder
T. Abedmidfielder
R. Duivenforward

Substitutes

Adrian Arnuncio
Homam Ahmed

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.7%: “Valladolid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for Valladolid, 1.03 for Oviedo.
The highest double chance value is 68.9% (1X — Valladolid win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,899 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Valladolid to win37.7%

Draw31.2%

Oviedo to win31.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Oviedo

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Julián Calero

Starting XI

Aarón Escandellgoalkeeper
Juan Cruzdefender
Carlos Domínguezdefender
Dani Calvodefender
Aisardefender
Alberto Reinamidfielder
Y. Didimidfielder
Mikel Gotimidfielder
Dani Villahermosamidfielder
Pablo Sáenzmidfielder
A. Ișfanforward

Substitutes

D. Menendez
David Jiménez
Enzo Perez
Estanis
Jacobo González
Marco Esteban
Miguel Narváez
S. Rodriguez
V. Mingo

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 14:08.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Valladolid win or draw68.9%

12 — any result other than a draw68.8%

X2 — draw or Oviedo win62.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (31.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Valladolid lead at half-time27.0%

Level at half-time48.3%

Oviedo lead at half-time24.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Valladolid ahead or level75.3%

12 — not level at half-time51.7%

X2 — level or Oviedo ahead73.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1899 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Valladolid: at least 14Actual: 10
Oviedo: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Valladolid: at least 4Actual: 2
Oviedo: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (42.6%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Valladolid score0.95

Attack: Valladolid score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Oviedo concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Oviedo score1.11

Attack: Oviedo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valladolid's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%1–012.2%0–011.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1899 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 88 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.