Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 5

Tenerife–Leganes

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'TenerifeEnric Gallego (penalty)
74'TenerifeEnric Gallego (assist: Gerard Valentín)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Tenerife		Leganes
11	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	4
3	Offsides	3
42%	Possession	58%
342	Passes	483
274	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Tenerife 1.17 · Leganes 0.82. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Tenerife 11 · Leganes 10; on target 4 and 2.
Leganes kept the ball more (58%).

Announced lineup

Tenerife

Formation: 4-4-2 · Manager: Álvaro

Starting XI

Dani Martíngoalkeeper
David Rodríguezdefender
José Leóndefender
A. Landázuridefender
César Álvarezdefender
Nacho Gilmidfielder
Fabriciomidfielder
Juanjomidfielder
Daniel Fernándezmidfielder
VÃctor Morenoforward
Enric Gallegoforward

Substitutes

A. Krdžalić
B. Diocou

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.2%: “Tenerife to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.22 for Tenerife, 0.96 for Leganes.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (1X — Tenerife win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,901 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Tenerife to win41.2%

Draw30.9%

Leganes to win27.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,777 of 3,996 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	20

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Leganes

Formation: 4-4-2 · Manager: Rubén Albés

Starting XI

L. Zidanegoalkeeper
Marveldefender
Ignasi Miqueldefender
Lalo Aguilardefender
Naim Garcíadefender
Y. Kechtamidfielder
Miguel Atienzamidfielder
Z. Buurmeestermidfielder
Álex Sancrismidfielder
Álvaro Morataforward
Ismaël Gharbiforward

Substitutes

Álex Fita
Álex Millán
Andrés Campos
Dani Rodríguez
Javi Montero
Nico Lozano
P. Soko
Raúl Fernández
Rubén Pulido

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 19:14.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Tenerife win or draw72.2%

12 — any result other than a draw69.1%

X2 — draw or Leganes win58.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (30.9%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Tenerife lead at half-time34.1%

Level at half-time49.9%

Leganes lead at half-time16.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Tenerife ahead or level84.0%

12 — not level at half-time50.1%

X2 — level or Leganes ahead65.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1901 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Tenerife: at least 14Actual: 15
Leganes: at least 11Actual: 20

Corners

Tenerife: at least 4Actual: 4
Leganes: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (42.6%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Tenerife score1.17

Attack: Tenerife score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Leganes's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leganes score0.82

Attack: Leganes score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Tenerife concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%1–013.0%0–011.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1901 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 130 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.