Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 4

Almeria–Cadiz

3–2

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'AlmeriaJavi Muñoz (assist: B. Cipenga)
25'CadizJavi Castro (assist: Antonio Cordero)
36'AlmeriaMiguel de la Fuente (assist: B. Cipenga)
44'AlmeriaLéo Baptistão (assist: B. Cipenga)
90+3'CadizD. Chirino (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Almeria		Cadiz
16	Shots	5
7	Shots on target	1
13	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	4
0	Offsides	3
58%	Possession	42%
541	Passes	392
476	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Almeria 2.04 · Cadiz 0.83. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Almeria 16 · Cadiz 5; on target 7 and 1.
Almeria kept the ball more (58%).

Announced lineup

Almeria

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Xavier García Pimienta

Starting XI

Andrés Fernándezgoalkeeper
Leonardo Lelodefender
F. Boninidefender
Rodrigo Elydefender
Marcos Lunadefender
S. Džodićmidfielder
Javi Muñozmidfielder
B. Cipengamidfielder
Quim Junyentmidfielder
Léo Baptistãomidfielder
Miguel de la Fuenteforward

Substitutes

Á. Yaakobishvili

Referee

Gorka Etayo Herrera, Spain→

5.00

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.0%: “Almeria to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.93 for Almeria, 0.81 for Cadiz.
The highest double chance value is 86.4% (1X — Almeria win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,890 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Almeria to win64.0%

Draw22.4%

Cadiz to win13.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Cadiz

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Celades

Starting XI

Jokin Ezkietagoalkeeper
Cristian Gutiérrezdefender
Javi Castrodefender
B. Kovačevićdefender
G. Gocholeishvilidefender
M. Douémidfielder
Damián Rodríguezmidfielder
Antonio Corderomidfielder
Jandro Orellanamidfielder
D. A. Zarate Hidalgomidfielder
Urko Izetaforward

Substitutes

Álvaro García
Borja Vazquez
David Gil
E. Aghama
Ibon Sánchez
J. Diaz Peregrina
Javi Ontiveros
K. Toibibou
M. Rivera
Manu Fernández
Sergio Arribas
V. Kopotun

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 20:10.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Almeria win or draw86.4%

12 — any result other than a draw77.6%

X2 — draw or Cadiz win36.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.4%).

First half

Actual: 3–1

Almeria lead at half-time54.8%

Level at half-time36.4%

Cadiz lead at half-time8.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Almeria ahead or level91.2%

12 — not level at half-time63.6%

X2 — level or Cadiz ahead45.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1890 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Almeria: at least 12Actual: 15
Cadiz: at least 12Actual: 8

Corners

Almeria: at least 5Actual: 3
Cadiz: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals52.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 42.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Almeria score2.04

Attack: Almeria score above the league average (39% more).

Opponent's defence: Cadiz's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.04 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cadiz score0.83

Attack: Cadiz score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Almeria concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.83 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.4%1–011.8%1–111.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1890 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 87 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.