Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 4

Castellón–Albacete

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

56'CastellónOusmane Camara (assist: Pablo Santiago)
62'CastellónIsrael Suero (assist: Ousmane Camara)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Castellón		Albacete
26	Shots	6
7	Shots on target	3
19	Shots inside the box	2
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
66%	Possession	34%
667	Passes	352
605	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Castellón 1.96 · Albacete 0.93. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Castellón 26 · Albacete 6; on target 7 and 3.
Castellón kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

German Cid Camacho, Spain→

7.10

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.5%: “Castellón to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.04 for Castellón, 1.00 for Albacete.
The highest double chance value is 83.7% (1X — Castellón win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,889 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Castellón to win61.5%

Draw22.1%

Albacete to win16.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

5	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Castellón lead at half-time47.3%

Level at half-time40.1%

Albacete lead at half-time12.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Castellón ahead or level87.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or Albacete ahead52.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1889 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Castellón: at least 11Actual: 5
Albacete: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Castellón: at least 6Actual: 7
Albacete: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Castellón score1.96

Attack: Castellón score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Albacete's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.96 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Albacete score0.93

Attack: Albacete score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Castellón's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%1–111.0%2–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.