Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 4

Oviedo–Burgos

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'OviedoA. Aldasoro · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Oviedo		Burgos
21	Shots	16
2	Shots on target	2
15	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
9	Corners	6
1	Offsides	0
40%	Possession	60%
291	Passes	456
223	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Oviedo 1.19 · Burgos 0.75. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Oviedo 21 · Burgos 16; on target 2 and 2.
Burgos kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Jose Antonio Sanchez Villalobos, Spain→

7.10

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.5%: “Oviedo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for Oviedo, 0.78 for Burgos.
The highest double chance value is 80.5% (1X — Oviedo win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,888 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Oviedo to win51.5%

Draw29.1%

Burgos to win19.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	26

3	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Oviedo lead at half-time27.5%

Level at half-time47.4%

Burgos lead at half-time25.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Oviedo ahead or level74.9%

12 — not level at half-time52.6%

X2 — level or Burgos ahead72.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1888 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Oviedo: at least 14Actual: 7
Burgos: at least 11Actual: 26

Corners

Oviedo: at least 4Actual: 9
Burgos: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Oviedo score1.19

Attack: Oviedo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Burgos concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Burgos score0.75

Attack: Burgos score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Oviedo concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.75 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.3%1–114.2%2–011.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.