Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 4

Eibar–Granada CF

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de Ipurua, Eibar

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'EibarIván Gil (assist: Jon Bautista)
44'EibarMalcom Adu (assist: Jon Guruzeta)
58'EibarJon Guruzeta (assist: Álvaro Rodríguez)
76'EibarJair Amador · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eibar		Granada CF
11	Shots	18
8	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
1	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
35%	Possession	65%
296	Passes	504
226	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eibar 1.36 · Granada CF 0.93. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Eibar 11 · Granada CF 18; on target 8 and 3.
Granada CF kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

Gonzalo Romero Freixas, Spain→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.9%: “Eibar to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for Eibar, 0.98 for Granada CF.
The highest double chance value is 74.9% (1X — Eibar win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,887 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eibar to win45.9%

Draw29.0%

Granada CF to win25.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Eibar lead at half-time34.3%

Level at half-time44.4%

Granada CF lead at half-time21.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Eibar ahead or level78.7%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or Granada CF ahead65.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1887 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eibar: at least 13Actual: 13
Granada CF: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Eibar: at least 4Actual: 1
Granada CF: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eibar score1.36

Attack: Eibar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Granada CF's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Granada CF score0.93

Attack: Granada CF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eibar concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–012.2%2–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.