Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 4

Real Sociedad II–Tenerife

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

60'TenerifeFabricio
81'Real Sociedad IIJavier Soroeta (assist: J. Balda)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Sociedad II		Tenerife
8	Shots	5
1	Shots on target	1
4	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	3
3	Offsides	3
56%	Possession	44%
479	Passes	367
407	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Sociedad II 1.20 · Tenerife 1.05. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Real Sociedad II 8 · Tenerife 5; on target 1 and 1.
Real Sociedad II kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.3%: “Real Sociedad II to win”. Second comes “Tenerife to win” at 33.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Real Sociedad II, 1.18 for Tenerife.
The highest double chance value is 70.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,882 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Sociedad II to win37.3%

Draw29.4%

Tenerife to win33.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Real Sociedad II lead at half-time20.8%

Level at half-time45.6%

Tenerife lead at half-time33.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Sociedad II ahead or level66.4%

12 — not level at half-time54.4%

X2 — level or Tenerife ahead79.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1882 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Sociedad II: at least 13Actual: 13
Tenerife: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Real Sociedad II: at least 4Actual: 2
Tenerife: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Sociedad II score1.20

Attack: Real Sociedad II score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tenerife concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tenerife score1.05

Attack: Tenerife score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad II concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–010.0%0–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.