Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 2

AD Ceuta FC–Las Palmas

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'Las PalmasT. Miyashiro
69'Las PalmasManu Fuster (assist: T. Miyashiro)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AD Ceuta FC		Las Palmas
19	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	4
14	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
419	Passes	399
363	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AD Ceuta FC 1.13 · Las Palmas 1.36. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots AD Ceuta FC 19 · Las Palmas 9; on target 4 and 4.

Referee

Pablo Morales Moreno, Spain→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.6%: “Las Palmas to win”. Second comes “AD Ceuta FC to win” at 32.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for AD Ceuta FC, 1.44 for Las Palmas.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,861 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AD Ceuta FC to win32.7%

Draw27.6%

Las Palmas to win39.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

AD Ceuta FC lead at half-time21.0%

Level at half-time42.0%

Las Palmas lead at half-time37.0%

First-half double chance

1X — AD Ceuta FC ahead or level63.0%

12 — not level at half-time58.0%

X2 — level or Las Palmas ahead79.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1861 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AD Ceuta FC: at least 14Actual: 18
Las Palmas: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

AD Ceuta FC: at least 3Actual: 6
Las Palmas: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AD Ceuta FC score1.13

Attack: AD Ceuta FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Las Palmas concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Las Palmas score1.36

Attack: Las Palmas score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AD Ceuta FC concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–29.5%2–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.