Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 1

Burgos–Cordoba

3–2

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 16 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'CordobaY. Diarra (assist: Cristian Carracedo)
24'BurgosÁlex Forés (assist: Curro Sánchez)
37'BurgosJavi Llabrés
45'CordobaE. Garcia (assist: Juan Gutiérrez)
90'BurgosDavid González (assist: Víctor Mollejo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Burgos		Cordoba
13	Shots	20
5	Shots on target	8
9	Shots inside the box	12
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	7
2	Offsides	1
41%	Possession	59%
297	Passes	411
218	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Burgos 1.24 · Cordoba 1.04. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Burgos 13 · Cordoba 20; on target 5 and 8.
Cordoba kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Daniel Miranda Bolano, Spain→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.1%: “Burgos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Burgos, 1.04 for Cordoba.
The highest double chance value is 70.5% (1X — Burgos win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,854 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Burgos to win40.1%

Draw30.3%

Cordoba to win29.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

Burgos lead at half-time44.1%

Level at half-time42.3%

Cordoba lead at half-time13.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Burgos ahead or level86.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or Cordoba ahead55.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1854 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Burgos: at least 12Actual: 14
Cordoba: at least 14Actual: 11

Corners

Burgos: at least 3Actual: 1
Cordoba: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Burgos score1.24

Attack: Burgos score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cordoba's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cordoba score1.04

Attack: Cordoba score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Burgos concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–011.9%0–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.