Almeria–Malaga

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 June 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

65'MalagaChupe (assist: Joaquín Muñoz)
71'MalagaDavid Larrubia (assist: Chupe)
76'AlmeriaLéo Baptistão (assist: Adri Embarba)
90+4'AlmeriaThalys · red card
90+9'MalagaA. Ochoa · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Almeria		Malaga
13	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	7
0	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
375	Passes	414
310	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Almeria 1.91 · Malaga 1.44. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Almeria 13 · Malaga 12; on target 6 and 5.

Referee

C. Muniz→

3.50

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.1%: “Almeria to win”. Second comes “Malaga to win” at 27.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.91 for Almeria, 1.44 for Malaga.
The highest double chance value is 76.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,848 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Almeria to win48.1%

Draw24.0%

Malaga to win27.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	5

1	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Almeria win or draw72.1%

12 — any result other than a draw76.0%

X2 — draw or Malaga win51.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Almeria lead at half-time28.0%

Level at half-time42.9%

Malaga lead at half-time29.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Almeria ahead or level71.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Malaga ahead72.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1848 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Almeria: at least 13Actual: 10
Malaga: at least 11Actual: 5

Corners

Almeria: at least 4Actual: 7
Malaga: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals66.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 42.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Almeria score1.91

Attack: Almeria score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: Malaga's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Malaga score1.44

Attack: Malaga score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Almeria concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 1.44 goals.

Most likely scorelines

1–110.9%2–110.1%1–27.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1848 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 84 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.