Las Palmas–Malaga

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 June 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

57'MalagaDavid Larrubia (assist: Dani Lorenzo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Las Palmas		Malaga
12	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	2
2	Offsides	3
60%	Possession	40%
564	Passes	379
482	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Las Palmas 1.46 · Malaga 1.18. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Las Palmas 12 · Malaga 11; on target 2 and 4.
Las Palmas kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

A. Fuentes→

5.50

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.9%: “Las Palmas to win”. Second comes “Malaga to win” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for Las Palmas, 1.18 for Malaga.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,848 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Las Palmas to win42.9%

Draw27.9%

Malaga to win29.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Las Palmas win or draw70.8%

12 — any result other than a draw72.1%

X2 — draw or Malaga win57.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Las Palmas lead at half-time30.0%

Level at half-time45.1%

Malaga lead at half-time24.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Las Palmas ahead or level75.2%

12 — not level at half-time54.9%

X2 — level or Malaga ahead70.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1848 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Las Palmas: at least 11Actual: 10
Malaga: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

Las Palmas: at least 4Actual: 4
Malaga: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 42.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Las Palmas score1.46

Attack: Las Palmas score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Malaga's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Malaga score1.18

Attack: Malaga score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Las Palmas concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.18 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%2–19.8%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1848 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 84 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.