Castellón–Almeria

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 June 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

44'CastellónF. Brignani
66'AlmeriaSergio Arribas (assist: Adri Embarba)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Castellón		Almeria
15	Shots	4
2	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
8	Corners	0
3	Offsides	3
61%	Possession	39%
427	Passes	291
345	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Castellón 2.02 · Almeria 1.25. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Castellón 15 · Almeria 4; on target 2 and 2.
Castellón kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

L. Bestard Servera→

5.15

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.1%: “Castellón to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.02 for Castellón, 1.25 for Almeria.
The highest double chance value is 78.1% (1X — Castellón win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,848 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Castellón to win55.1%

Draw23.0%

Almeria to win21.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Castellón win or draw78.1%

12 — any result other than a draw77.0%

X2 — draw or Almeria win44.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.0%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Castellón lead at half-time35.4%

Level at half-time40.9%

Almeria lead at half-time23.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Castellón ahead or level76.3%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Almeria ahead64.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1848 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Castellón: at least 13Actual: 15
Almeria: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

Castellón: at least 5
Almeria: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals64.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 42.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Castellón score2.02

Attack: Castellón score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Almeria concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.02 goals.

How many goals Almeria score1.25

Attack: Almeria score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: Castellón's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.8%2–110.7%2–07.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1848 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 84 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.