Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 42

Leganes–Mirandes

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 31 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

69'LeganesÁlex Millán (assist: Dani Rodríguez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Leganes		Mirandes
7	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	3
1	Offsides	3
36%	Possession	64%
212	Passes	382
155	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Leganes 1.46 · Mirandes 1.14. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Leganes 7 · Mirandes 12; on target 2 and 5.
Mirandes kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

M. Orellana→

7.27

yellows per match

0.36

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.9%: “Leganes to win”. Second comes “Mirandes to win” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for Leganes, 1.22 for Mirandes.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,846 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Leganes to win43.9%

Draw27.2%

Mirandes to win28.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Leganes win or draw71.1%

12 — any result other than a draw72.8%

X2 — draw or Mirandes win56.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Leganes lead at half-time27.8%

Level at half-time46.0%

Mirandes lead at half-time26.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Leganes ahead or level73.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.0%

X2 — level or Mirandes ahead72.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1846 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Leganes: at least 12Actual: 20
Mirandes: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Leganes: at least 4Actual: 5
Mirandes: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals52.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 42.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Leganes score1.46

Attack: Leganes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mirandes's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mirandes score1.14

Attack: Mirandes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Leganes's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%2–110.0%1–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1846 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 125 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.