Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 42

Almeria–Valladolid

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 31 May 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

57'AlmeriaSergio Arribas (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Almeria		Valladolid
25	Shots	8
9	Shots on target	4
15	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	7
2	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
46%	Possession	54%
343	Passes	402
294	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Almeria 1.84 · Valladolid 1.07. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Almeria 25 · Valladolid 8; on target 9 and 4.

Referee

M. Perez→

5.00

yellows per match

0.53

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.0%: “Almeria to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.26 for Almeria, 0.92 for Valladolid.
The highest double chance value is 87.5% (1X — Almeria win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,840 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Almeria to win68.0%

Draw19.5%

Valladolid to win12.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Almeria win or draw87.5%

12 — any result other than a draw80.5%

X2 — draw or Valladolid win32.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (19.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Almeria lead at half-time49.3%

Level at half-time37.9%

Valladolid lead at half-time12.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Almeria ahead or level87.2%

12 — not level at half-time62.1%

X2 — level or Valladolid ahead50.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1840 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Almeria: at least 12Actual: 17
Valladolid: at least 13Actual: 10

Corners

Almeria: at least 4Actual: 2
Valladolid: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals62.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 42.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Almeria score1.84

Attack: Almeria score above the league average (43% more).

Opponent's defence: Valladolid's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valladolid score1.07

Attack: Valladolid score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Almeria concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.8%2–110.8%1–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1840 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 83 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.