Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 42

Deportivo La Coruna–Las Palmas

1–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 31 May 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Las PalmasKirian Rodríguez (assist: T. Miyashiro)
18'Las PalmasMarvin (assist: Manu Fuster)
28'Deportivo La CorunaZ. Eddahchouri

Match statistics

Match statistics
Deportivo La Coruna		Las Palmas
6	Shots	5
3	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	5
1	Offsides	3
44%	Possession	56%
554	Passes	712
506	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Deportivo La Coruna 1.37 · Las Palmas 1.02. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Deportivo La Coruna 6 · Las Palmas 5; on target 3 and 2.
Las Palmas kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

E. Mallo→

6.00

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.7%: “Las Palmas to win”. Second comes “Deportivo La Coruna to win” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Deportivo La Coruna, 1.51 for Las Palmas.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,840 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Deportivo La Coruna to win28.9%

Draw27.4%

Las Palmas to win43.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Deportivo La Coruna lead at half-time24.2%

Level at half-time45.3%

Las Palmas lead at half-time30.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Deportivo La Coruna ahead or level69.5%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or Las Palmas ahead75.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1840 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 13Actual: 11
Las Palmas: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 4Actual: 1
Las Palmas: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Deportivo La Coruna score1.37

Attack: Deportivo La Coruna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Las Palmas concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Las Palmas score1.02

Attack: Las Palmas score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Deportivo La Coruna's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–210.0%0–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.