Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 42

AD Ceuta FC–Albacete

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 30 May 2026 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 36%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'AD Ceuta FCMarcos Fernández (assist: A. Bassinga)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AD Ceuta FC		Albacete
8	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	4
4	Offsides	0
61%	Possession	39%
501	Passes	316
450	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AD Ceuta FC 1.39 · Albacete 1.38. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots AD Ceuta FC 8 · Albacete 11; on target 4 and 4.
AD Ceuta FC kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

G. Cid→

5.18

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.4%: “Albacete to win”. Second comes “AD Ceuta FC to win” at 36.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for AD Ceuta FC, 1.49 for Albacete.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,837 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AD Ceuta FC to win36.0%

Draw26.5%

Albacete to win37.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

AD Ceuta FC lead at half-time30.5%

Level at half-time42.1%

Albacete lead at half-time27.5%

First-half double chance

1X — AD Ceuta FC ahead or level72.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or Albacete ahead69.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1837 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AD Ceuta FC: at least 11Actual: 14
Albacete: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

AD Ceuta FC: at least 4Actual: 6
Albacete: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AD Ceuta FC score1.39

Attack: AD Ceuta FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Albacete's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Albacete score1.38

Attack: Albacete score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AD Ceuta FC concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%1–29.3%2–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.