Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 42

Real Sociedad II–Cultural Leonesa

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 30 May 2026 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

56'Cultural LeonesaL. Ribeiro (assist: Bicho)
61'Real Sociedad IIA. Mariezkurrena (assist: J. Oleaga)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Sociedad II		Cultural Leonesa
12	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	4
6	Offsides	0
39%	Possession	61%
323	Passes	534
261	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Sociedad II 1.59 · Cultural Leonesa 1.04. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Real Sociedad II 12 · Cultural Leonesa 11; on target 4 and 3.
Cultural Leonesa kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

G. Etayo→

4.42

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.9%: “Real Sociedad II to win”. Second comes “Cultural Leonesa to win” at 30.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.62 for Real Sociedad II, 1.36 for Cultural Leonesa.
The highest double chance value is 73.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,837 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Sociedad II to win42.9%

Draw26.2%

Cultural Leonesa to win30.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Real Sociedad II lead at half-time36.2%

Level at half-time43.1%

Cultural Leonesa lead at half-time20.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Sociedad II ahead or level79.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Cultural Leonesa ahead63.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1837 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Sociedad II: at least 13Actual: 12
Cultural Leonesa: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Real Sociedad II: at least 4Actual: 6
Cultural Leonesa: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Sociedad II score1.59

Attack: Real Sociedad II score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cultural Leonesa's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cultural Leonesa score1.04

Attack: Cultural Leonesa score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad II concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%2–19.9%1–28.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.