Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 41

Cultural Leonesa–Burgos

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 May 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Reino de León, León

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'BurgosDavid González (penalty)
45'BurgosDavid González

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cultural Leonesa		Burgos
16	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	0
0	Offsides	4
76%	Possession	24%
543	Passes	167
489	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cultural Leonesa 0.97 · Burgos 1.11. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Cultural Leonesa 16 · Burgos 9; on target 4 and 4.
Cultural Leonesa kept the ball more (76%).

Referee

J. Sanchez→

4.81

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.5%: “Burgos to win”. Second comes “Cultural Leonesa to win” at 30.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.10 for Cultural Leonesa, 1.28 for Burgos.
The highest double chance value is 70.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,828 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cultural Leonesa to win30.7%

Draw29.7%

Burgos to win39.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	16

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Cultural Leonesa lead at half-time20.9%

Level at half-time46.0%

Burgos lead at half-time33.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Cultural Leonesa ahead or level66.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.0%

X2 — level or Burgos ahead79.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1828 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cultural Leonesa: at least 13Actual: 13
Burgos: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Cultural Leonesa: at least 4
Burgos: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cultural Leonesa score0.97

Attack: Cultural Leonesa score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Burgos concede 30% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Burgos score1.11

Attack: Burgos score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cultural Leonesa's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%0–111.0%1–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.