Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 41

Albacete–Real Sociedad II

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 May 2026 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Carlos Belmonte, Albacete

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'AlbaceteJefté Betancor (assist: Fran Gámez)
37'AlbacetePepe (assist: V. San Bartolome)
53'Real Sociedad IIGorka Carrera (assist: A. Lebarbier)
56'AlbaceteLluís López (assist: Fran Gámez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Albacete		Real Sociedad II
20	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	4
14	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	6
0	Offsides	1
37%	Possession	63%
304	Passes	534
237	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Albacete 1.70 · Real Sociedad II 1.11. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Albacete 20 · Real Sociedad II 12; on target 7 and 4.
Real Sociedad II kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

A. de Ena Wolf→

6.73

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.6%: “Albacete to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for Albacete, 1.10 for Real Sociedad II.
The highest double chance value is 79.0% (1X — Albacete win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,826 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Albacete to win54.6%

Draw24.4%

Real Sociedad II to win21.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Albacete lead at half-time36.0%

Level at half-time43.7%

Real Sociedad II lead at half-time20.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Albacete ahead or level79.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Real Sociedad II ahead64.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1826 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Albacete: at least 10Actual: 13
Real Sociedad II: at least 12Actual: 6

Corners

Albacete: at least 5Actual: 6
Real Sociedad II: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Albacete score1.70

Attack: Albacete score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad II's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Real Sociedad II score1.11

Attack: Real Sociedad II score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Albacete's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%2–110.9%2–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.