Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 40

Deportivo La Coruna–FC Andorra

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'FC AndorraJosep Cerdà (assist: Martí Vilà)
48'Deportivo La CorunaMario Soriano (assist: Y. Hernandez)
81'Deportivo La CorunaZ. Eddahchouri (assist: B. Nsongo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Deportivo La Coruna		FC Andorra
14	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
2	Corners	1
2	Offsides	2
34%	Possession	66%
291	Passes	583
212	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Deportivo La Coruna 1.57 · FC Andorra 1.12. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Deportivo La Coruna 14 · FC Andorra 11; on target 7 and 4.
FC Andorra kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

M. Orellana→

7.67

yellows per match

0.44

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.8%: “Deportivo La Coruna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.87 for Deportivo La Coruna, 1.07 for FC Andorra.
The highest double chance value is 79.9% (1X — Deportivo La Coruna win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,823 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Deportivo La Coruna to win55.8%

Draw24.1%

FC Andorra to win20.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Deportivo La Coruna lead at half-time29.6%

Level at half-time44.4%

FC Andorra lead at half-time26.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Deportivo La Coruna ahead or level74.0%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or FC Andorra ahead70.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1823 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 12Actual: 11
FC Andorra: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 5Actual: 2
FC Andorra: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Deportivo La Coruna score1.57

Attack: Deportivo La Coruna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Andorra's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Andorra score1.12

Attack: FC Andorra score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Deportivo La Coruna's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–110.9%2–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.