Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 40

Racing Santander–Valladolid

4–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 May 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

33'Racing SantanderAsier Villalibre
42'ValladolidM. Jaouab
59'ValladolidClerc · red card
62'Racing SantanderA. Martin (penalty)
73'Racing SantanderA. Martin (assist: Asier Villalibre)
90'Racing SantanderSuleiman Camara (assist: Damián Rodríguez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Racing Santander		Valladolid
11	Shots	11
8	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	9
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	2
2	Offsides	3
53%	Possession	47%
414	Passes	365
347	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Racing Santander 1.71 · Valladolid 1.08. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Racing Santander 11 · Valladolid 11; on target 8 and 2.

Referee

C. Muniz→

4.00

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.8%: “Racing Santander to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.28 for Racing Santander, 0.95 for Valladolid.
The highest double chance value is 87.2% (1X — Racing Santander win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,820 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Racing Santander to win67.8%

Draw19.4%

Valladolid to win12.8%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–1

Racing Santander lead at half-time43.5%

Level at half-time40.4%

Valladolid lead at half-time16.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Racing Santander ahead or level83.9%

12 — not level at half-time59.6%

X2 — level or Valladolid ahead56.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1820 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Racing Santander: at least 12Actual: 13
Valladolid: at least 15Actual: 11

Corners

Racing Santander: at least 4Actual: 6
Valladolid: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Racing Santander score1.71

Attack: Racing Santander score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: Valladolid's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valladolid score1.08

Attack: Valladolid score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Racing Santander's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.8%2–010.4%1–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.