Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 40

AD Ceuta FC–Malaga

1–4

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 May 2026 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'MalagaJoaquín Muñoz (assist: Chupe)
13'MalagaChupe (assist: Rafa Rodríguez)
42'MalagaChupe (assist: Rafa Rodríguez)
52'AD Ceuta FCEinar Galilea (own goal)
82'MalagaA. Ochoa

Match statistics

Match statistics
AD Ceuta FC		Malaga
14	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	8
7	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	1
4	Offsides	2
48%	Possession	52%
424	Passes	476
369	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AD Ceuta FC 1.33 · Malaga 1.65. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots AD Ceuta FC 14 · Malaga 11; on target 6 and 8.

Referee

A. de Ena Wolf→

6.80

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.2%: “Malaga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for AD Ceuta FC, 1.92 for Malaga.
The highest double chance value is 78.0% (X2 — draw or Malaga win).
These values were computed from 1,818 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AD Ceuta FC to win22.0%

Draw23.8%

Malaga to win54.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	11

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–3

AD Ceuta FC lead at half-time26.2%

Level at half-time42.9%

Malaga lead at half-time30.9%

First-half double chance

1X — AD Ceuta FC ahead or level69.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Malaga ahead73.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1818 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AD Ceuta FC: at least 13Actual: 17
Malaga: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

AD Ceuta FC: at least 4Actual: 5
Malaga: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AD Ceuta FC score1.33

Attack: AD Ceuta FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Malaga's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Malaga score1.65

Attack: Malaga score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: AD Ceuta FC concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%1–210.8%0–28.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.