Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 40

Cultural Leonesa–Eibar

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 May 2026 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Reino de León, León

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

59'Cultural LeonesaVÃctor Moreno (assist: N. Radoja)
61'Cultural LeonesaMatia Barzic Gutiérrez (assist: L. Ribeiro)
86'EibarJosé Corpas (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cultural Leonesa		Eibar
8	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	4
2	Offsides	6
54%	Possession	46%
485	Passes	414
409	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cultural Leonesa 0.96 · Eibar 1.31. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Cultural Leonesa 8 · Eibar 14; on target 3 and 3.

Referee

A. Moreno→

5.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.0%: “Eibar to win”. Second comes “Cultural Leonesa to win” at 29.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for Cultural Leonesa, 1.34 for Eibar.
The highest double chance value is 70.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,818 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cultural Leonesa to win29.9%

Draw29.1%

Eibar to win41.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Cultural Leonesa lead at half-time17.0%

Level at half-time43.7%

Eibar lead at half-time39.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Cultural Leonesa ahead or level60.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Eibar ahead83.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1818 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cultural Leonesa: at least 11Actual: 12
Eibar: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Cultural Leonesa: at least 4Actual: 4
Eibar: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cultural Leonesa score0.96

Attack: Cultural Leonesa score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Eibar concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eibar score1.31

Attack: Eibar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cultural Leonesa's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%0–110.6%1–29.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.