Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 40

Real Sociedad II–Mirandes

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 May 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'MirandesF. Medrano
45'Real Sociedad IILuken Beitia (assist: Alex Garcia)
49'MirandesRafel Bauzà (assist: Hugo Novoa)
90'Real Sociedad IIDani Díaz (assist: Alberto Dadie)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Sociedad II		Mirandes
17	Shots	3
6	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	3
58%	Possession	42%
443	Passes	337
344	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Sociedad II 1.55 · Mirandes 1.17. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Real Sociedad II 17 · Mirandes 3; on target 6 and 3.
Real Sociedad II kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

J. Sanchez→

4.96

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.5%: “Mirandes to win”. Second comes “Real Sociedad II to win” at 32.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Real Sociedad II, 1.50 for Mirandes.
The highest double chance value is 72.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,817 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Sociedad II to win32.4%

Draw27.1%

Mirandes to win40.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Real Sociedad II lead at half-time32.9%

Level at half-time43.9%

Mirandes lead at half-time23.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Sociedad II ahead or level76.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Mirandes ahead67.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1817 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Sociedad II: at least 15Actual: 13
Mirandes: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Real Sociedad II: at least 4Actual: 5
Mirandes: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Sociedad II score1.55

Attack: Real Sociedad II score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mirandes's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mirandes score1.17

Attack: Mirandes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad II's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–29.7%2–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.