Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 39

Leganes–Racing Santander

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'Racing SantanderM. Gueye (assist: G. Guliashvili)
88'Racing SantanderAsier Villalibre (penalty)
90'LeganesL. Asue

Match statistics

Match statistics
Leganes		Racing Santander
10	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
389	Passes	282
310	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Leganes 1.44 · Racing Santander 1.47. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Leganes 10 · Racing Santander 13; on target 4 and 5.
Leganes kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

M. H. De Aza→

4.25

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.7%: “Racing Santander to win”. Second comes “Leganes to win” at 32.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for Leganes, 1.65 for Racing Santander.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,811 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Leganes to win32.6%

Draw25.7%

Racing Santander to win41.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	22

6	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Leganes lead at half-time23.8%

Level at half-time44.5%

Racing Santander lead at half-time31.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Leganes ahead or level68.2%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or Racing Santander ahead76.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1811 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Leganes: at least 13Actual: 19
Racing Santander: at least 12Actual: 22

Corners

Leganes: at least 4Actual: 5
Racing Santander: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Leganes score1.44

Attack: Leganes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Racing Santander's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Racing Santander score1.47

Attack: Racing Santander score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: Leganes's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%1–29.7%2–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.