Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 39

FC Andorra–Las Palmas

5–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 36%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'Las PalmasJesé (penalty)
35'FC AndorraT. Le Normand (assist: Josep Cerdà)
64'FC AndorraMika Màrmol (own goal)
78'FC AndorraE. Akman (assist: Álex Petxarroman)
81'FC AndorraManu Nieto
87'FC AndorraM. Cardona (assist: Yeray Cabanzón)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Andorra		Las Palmas
19	Shots	8
9	Shots on target	4
14	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
3	Corners	4
1	Offsides	4
60%	Possession	40%
473	Passes	314
412	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Andorra 1.23 · Las Palmas 1.12. On the pitch: 5-1.
Shots FC Andorra 19 · Las Palmas 8; on target 9 and 4.
FC Andorra kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

C. Muniz→

4.33

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.8%: “FC Andorra to win”. Second comes “Las Palmas to win” at 35.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for FC Andorra, 1.31 for Las Palmas.
The highest double chance value is 71.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,810 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Andorra to win35.8%

Draw28.3%

Las Palmas to win35.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

FC Andorra lead at half-time26.0%

Level at half-time45.4%

Las Palmas lead at half-time28.6%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Andorra ahead or level71.4%

12 — not level at half-time54.6%

X2 — level or Las Palmas ahead74.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1810 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Andorra: at least 13Actual: 13
Las Palmas: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

FC Andorra: at least 4Actual: 3
Las Palmas: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Andorra score1.23

Attack: FC Andorra score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Las Palmas concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Las Palmas score1.12

Attack: Las Palmas score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Andorra's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–28.9%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.