Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 39

AD Ceuta FC–Castellón

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 20%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

52'CastellónF. Brignani (assist: Ronaldo)
87'AD Ceuta FCMarcos Fernández (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AD Ceuta FC		Castellón
8	Shots	18
4	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	15
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	6
3	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
387	Passes	375
293	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AD Ceuta FC 1.21 · Castellón 1.72. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots AD Ceuta FC 8 · Castellón 18; on target 4 and 5.

Referee

D. Palencia→

4.80

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.5%: “Castellón to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.14 for AD Ceuta FC, 2.29 for Castellón.
The highest double chance value is 83.8% (X2 — draw or Castellón win).
These values were computed from 1,805 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AD Ceuta FC to win16.2%

Draw20.3%

Castellón to win63.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	15

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

AD Ceuta FC lead at half-time28.1%

Level at half-time39.8%

Castellón lead at half-time32.1%

First-half double chance

1X — AD Ceuta FC ahead or level67.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or Castellón ahead71.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1805 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AD Ceuta FC: at least 13Actual: 15
Castellón: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

AD Ceuta FC: at least 3Actual: 6
Castellón: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AD Ceuta FC score1.21

Attack: AD Ceuta FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Castellón's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Castellón score1.72

Attack: Castellón score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: AD Ceuta FC concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 1.72 goals.

Most likely scorelines

1–210.7%1–19.4%0–28.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.