Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 38

Las Palmas–Valladolid

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'Las PalmasJesé (assist: Manu Fuster)
56'Las PalmasEstanis (assist: Manu Fuster)
80'ValladolidS. Biuk

Match statistics

Match statistics
Las Palmas		Valladolid
12	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	2
4	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	7
3	Offsides	2
56%	Possession	44%
570	Passes	435
516	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Las Palmas 1.36 · Valladolid 0.87. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Las Palmas 12 · Valladolid 8; on target 4 and 2.
Las Palmas kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

J. A. Gonzalez Esteban→

4.09

yellows per match

0.45

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.3%: “Las Palmas to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.72 for Las Palmas, 0.84 for Valladolid.
The highest double chance value is 83.4% (1X — Las Palmas win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,802 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Las Palmas to win58.3%

Draw25.1%

Valladolid to win16.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Las Palmas lead at half-time42.8%

Level at half-time42.5%

Valladolid lead at half-time14.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Las Palmas ahead or level85.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Valladolid ahead57.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1802 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Las Palmas: at least 11Actual: 9
Valladolid: at least 15Actual: 15

Corners

Las Palmas: at least 4Actual: 3
Valladolid: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Las Palmas score1.36

Attack: Las Palmas score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valladolid's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valladolid score0.87

Attack: Valladolid score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Las Palmas concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%1–012.6%2–011.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.