Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 38

Real Sociedad II–Burgos

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 30%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Sociedad II		Burgos
15	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	2
0	Offsides	4
49%	Possession	51%
413	Passes	432
328	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Sociedad II 1.15 · Burgos 1.13. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Real Sociedad II 15 · Burgos 7; on target 4 and 2.

Referee

M. Orellana→

7.88

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.1%: “Burgos to win”. Second comes “Real Sociedad II to win” at 32.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for Real Sociedad II, 1.21 for Burgos.
The highest double chance value is 69.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,801 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Sociedad II to win32.7%

Draw30.1%

Burgos to win37.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

23	Fouls	10

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Real Sociedad II lead at half-time24.4%

Level at half-time45.3%

Burgos lead at half-time30.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Sociedad II ahead or level69.7%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or Burgos ahead75.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1801 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Sociedad II: at least 15Actual: 23
Burgos: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Real Sociedad II: at least 4Actual: 2
Burgos: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Sociedad II score1.15

Attack: Real Sociedad II score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Burgos concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Burgos score1.13

Attack: Burgos score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad II's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%0–110.9%1–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.