Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 38

Racing Santander–Huesca

4–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'HuescaOscar Sielva (assist: A. Carrillo)
47'Racing SantanderAsier Villalibre (assist: A. Martin)
53'Racing SantanderÁlvaro Mantilla (assist: Iñigo Vicente)
66'Racing SantanderA. Martin (assist: Iñigo Vicente)
72'HuescaOscar Sielva (penalty)
75'Huesca

Match statistics

Match statistics
Racing Santander		Huesca
25	Shots	9
15	Shots on target	4
22	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	11
12	Corners	3
2	Offsides	3
64%	Possession	36%
570	Passes	309
489	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Racing Santander 1.94 · Huesca 0.90. On the pitch: 4-2.
Shots Racing Santander 25 · Huesca 9; on target 15 and 4.
Racing Santander kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

G. Cid→

5.00

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.8%: “Racing Santander to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.22 for Racing Santander, 0.90 for Huesca.
The highest double chance value is 87.5% (1X — Racing Santander win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,799 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Racing Santander to win67.8%

Draw19.8%

Huesca to win12.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

Racing Santander lead at half-time52.1%

Level at half-time37.6%

Huesca lead at half-time10.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Racing Santander ahead or level89.7%

12 — not level at half-time62.4%

X2 — level or Huesca ahead47.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1799 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Racing Santander: at least 12Actual: 11
Huesca: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Racing Santander: at least 5Actual: 12
Huesca: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Racing Santander score1.94

Attack: Racing Santander score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Huesca's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Huesca score0.90

Attack: Huesca score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Racing Santander's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.1%2–110.8%1–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.