Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 38

Deportivo La Coruna–Leganes

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 1 May 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

64'Deportivo La CorunaZ. Eddahchouri (assist: Luismi Cruz)
74'LeganesJuan Cruz (assist: Duk)
77'Deportivo La CorunaN. Carrillo (assist: Peke)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Deportivo La Coruna		Leganes
16	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	6
11	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
503	Passes	366
457	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Deportivo La Coruna 1.61 · Leganes 0.95. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Deportivo La Coruna 16 · Leganes 14; on target 6 and 6.
Deportivo La Coruna kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

A. Ojaos→

5.20

yellows per match

0.60

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.9%: “Deportivo La Coruna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.94 for Deportivo La Coruna, 0.87 for Leganes.
The highest double chance value is 85.4% (1X — Deportivo La Coruna win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,794 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Deportivo La Coruna to win62.9%

Draw22.6%

Leganes to win14.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	11

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Deportivo La Coruna lead at half-time36.1%

Level at half-time44.9%

Leganes lead at half-time19.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Deportivo La Coruna ahead or level80.9%

12 — not level at half-time55.1%

X2 — level or Leganes ahead63.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1794 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 12Actual: 12
Leganes: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 5Actual: 9
Leganes: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Deportivo La Coruna score1.61

Attack: Deportivo La Coruna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Leganes's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leganes score0.95

Attack: Leganes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Deportivo La Coruna's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.7%1–111.4%1–011.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.