Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 37

AD Ceuta FC–Racing Santander

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 April 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
AD Ceuta FC		Racing Santander
6	Shots	19
0	Shots on target	9
5	Shots inside the box	12
8	Goalkeeper saves	0
1	Corners	9
4	Offsides	6
41%	Possession	59%
317	Passes	465
244	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AD Ceuta FC 1.44 · Racing Santander 1.65. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots AD Ceuta FC 6 · Racing Santander 19; on target 0 and 9.
Racing Santander kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

E. Mallo→

6.10

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.7%: “Racing Santander to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for AD Ceuta FC, 1.89 for Racing Santander.
The highest double chance value is 75.8% (X2 — draw or Racing Santander win).
These values were computed from 1,791 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AD Ceuta FC to win24.2%

Draw24.2%

Racing Santander to win51.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

AD Ceuta FC lead at half-time27.7%

Level at half-time39.7%

Racing Santander lead at half-time32.5%

First-half double chance

1X — AD Ceuta FC ahead or level67.5%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or Racing Santander ahead72.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1791 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AD Ceuta FC: at least 14Actual: 17
Racing Santander: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

AD Ceuta FC: at least 4Actual: 1
Racing Santander: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AD Ceuta FC score1.44

Attack: AD Ceuta FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Racing Santander's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Racing Santander score1.65

Attack: Racing Santander score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: AD Ceuta FC concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 1.65 goals.

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%1–210.6%0–27.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.