Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 37

Huesca–Zaragoza

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 April 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio El Alcoraz, Huesca

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

65'HuescaOscar Sielva (penalty)
90+8'ZaragozaEsteban Andrada · red card
90+13'HuescaDani Jiménez · red card
90+13'ZaragozaDani Tasende · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Huesca		Zaragoza
12	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
1	Corners	5
3	Offsides	2
39%	Possession	61%
286	Passes	448
215	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Huesca 1.22 · Zaragoza 1.19. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Huesca 12 · Zaragoza 7; on target 5 and 2.
Zaragoza kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

D. Arcediano→

5.67

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.6%: “Zaragoza to win”. Second comes “Huesca to win” at 33.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for Huesca, 1.16 for Zaragoza.
The highest double chance value is 69.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,789 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Huesca to win33.8%

Draw30.6%

Zaragoza to win35.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	20

2	Yellow cards	5

1	Red cards	2

First half

Actual: 0–0

Huesca lead at half-time29.0%

Level at half-time46.9%

Zaragoza lead at half-time24.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Huesca ahead or level75.9%

12 — not level at half-time53.1%

X2 — level or Zaragoza ahead71.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1789 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Huesca: at least 13Actual: 15
Zaragoza: at least 11Actual: 20

Corners

Huesca: at least 4Actual: 1
Zaragoza: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Huesca score1.22

Attack: Huesca score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Zaragoza's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Zaragoza score1.19

Attack: Zaragoza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Huesca's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%0–111.0%1–010.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.