Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 37

Mirandes–Cultural Leonesa

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 April 2026 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'MirandesC. Fernandez (assist: U. del Cura)
53'Cultural LeonesaLuis Chacón (assist: Bicho)
54'Cultural LeonesaMatia Barzic Gutiérrez · red card
90'MirandesR. Tresaco (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Mirandes		Cultural Leonesa
19	Shots	10
7	Shots on target	5
13	Shots inside the box	3
4	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	2
4	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
348	Passes	339
280	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mirandes 1.49 · Cultural Leonesa 1.04. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Mirandes 19 · Cultural Leonesa 10; on target 7 and 5.

Referee

D. Palencia→

4.89

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.0%: “Mirandes to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.62 for Mirandes, 1.14 for Cultural Leonesa.
The highest double chance value is 74.6% (1X — Mirandes win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,787 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mirandes to win48.0%

Draw26.6%

Cultural Leonesa to win25.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	19

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Mirandes lead at half-time32.6%

Level at half-time44.3%

Cultural Leonesa lead at half-time23.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Mirandes ahead or level76.9%

12 — not level at half-time55.7%

X2 — level or Cultural Leonesa ahead67.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1787 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Mirandes: at least 12Actual: 6
Cultural Leonesa: at least 12Actual: 19

Corners

Mirandes: at least 4Actual: 6
Cultural Leonesa: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mirandes score1.49

Attack: Mirandes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cultural Leonesa's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cultural Leonesa score1.04

Attack: Cultural Leonesa score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Mirandes's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–110.4%1–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.